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Excellent read! I feel the bottleneck for Huawei’s in-house silicon would be SMIC or a foundry that can help Huawei to enhance to an advanced node. US Export Control enacts rules, that prohibits pure play foundries (example: TSMC and now Intel Foundry Services) to ship to Huawei.

Keen to know how Huawei HiSilicon Ascend “AI Chip” future development stands against test of US Export Control enacts Control. Would they vertically stack dies for greater TOPS/mm² or perhaps hit a breakthrough with micro architecture, to keep up with need to train new models (and scale inferencing or improve its throughput)

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Ethan Kessler's avatar

The risk that US export controls simply push Huawei et al. to innovate even further while depriving US firms of R&D dollars is absolutely real and commonly noted. But how do you think we should balance that against two other considerations?

1. The first is that in another policy debate – the tariff question – anti-tariff economists often point to the fact that protecting domestic industries makes them sluggish by depriving them of pressure to adopt best practices, also called X-inefficiency. Yes, Huawei is clearly getting space in the China market to profit and tinker because export controls push out TSMC/Nvidia. But by the same token, for all the resources Beijing is willing to put into AI, it still obeys the laws of physics, and its resources are finite. Beyond the progress Huawei makes because of export controls, every yuan spent on energy-inefficient architectures or domestic firm subsidization is money that cannot be spent on other, broader US concerns with China, such as PLAN cruisers or subsidies for electric cars. I'm not sure how big this effect is, though – is it big enough to warrant discussion alongside the positive effects of export controls for China's tech stack?

2. Second, designers and proponents of US controls since the 10/22 rule argue that the bite won't come for a couple years. (Lennart Heim's Deepseek blog post argued that a cluster started in 2023 after the export control revisions won't be replaced until 2026 https://blog.heim.xyz/deepseek-what-the-headlines-miss/.) How can we assess not only the impressiveness of Huawei's advances given current constraints but also their magnitude: i.e., will they will be enough to overcome obstacles for China that come with a time lag?

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